It is essentially the most superb time of the yr. Snow is falling. Frost is biting. Playoff soccer is within the air. Let’s put our ft up and forged our eyes to the fringes of playoff competition.
AFC
1. Buffalo Bills (11-3); 2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-3); 3. Cincinnati Bengals (10-4); 4. Tennessee Titans (7-7); 5. Baltimore Ravens (9-5); 6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6); 7. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
New England Patriots (7-7)
After the debacle on the finish of final week’s recreation, the Pats are again to .500. Their offense stays damaged. Their protection stays the most productive within the league – since Week 5, Bill Belichick’s team has with ease outpaced the league in EPA in keeping with play, a measure of down-to-down efficiency. Belichick and corporate can be deluding themselves, then again, if they believe they may be able to wriggle into the postseason and purpose any more or less disruption with the present state of the offense. Mac Jones can slightly get a play off in time. There’s no rhythm. Receivers create no separation. Aside from the operating recreation, they are not able to generate any more or less explosive performs.
They face a frightening ultimate 3 video games: house to the Bengals and Dolphins; At the Bills. At this level, warding off the playoffs altogether sounds preferable to sneaking in and being shellacked by way of the Bills or Chiefs within the first spherical.
Chances: Time to show to the draft
New York Jets (7-7)
If you squint shut sufficient, you can realize there is no longer too Much distance isolating the Jets and Patriots. Both have best-in-class defenses. Both have problems on offense: One is damaged by way of design and dodgy quarterback play; the opposite is beset by way of accidents … and dodgy quarterback play.
The Jets have misplaced 3 at the spin, failing to attain greater than 20 issues in two of the 3 losses. The spine of this Jets’ roster is just right sufficient to compete deep into the AFC postseason. They have velocity in any respect 3 ranges of the protection. They create power with 4. Sauce Gardner walked into the league as the sport’s most sensible cornerback – and continues to (in some way) get well with every passing week.
The factor: Who’s lining up at quarterback? Mike White will omit this week’s recreation with the Jags with a rib damage, this means that some other get started for the wild stylings of Zach Wilson. New York’s offense purposes extra seamlessly, extra successfully, with extra rhythm, with White on the helm than with Wilson. In an idealized global, the Jets would ask Wilson to play it secure over the next weeks. To sacrifice an opportunity at wow performs in change for some order and simple task. To restrict the turnovers and put the ball within the palms of the protection on my own to come to a decision video games. But that might be like asking Mr Blobby to accomplish Hamlet.
With the Jaguars, Seahawks and Dolphins left at the time table, it is going to no longer be a very simple with reference to the season. But the Jets have a shot. They stroll into each matchup understanding that with their line of defense they’ve the highest general unit at the box – one that may create sufficient chaos to hold the workforce to 9 wins.
Chances: Doomed by way of the quarterback room
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8)
You may no longer have spotted, however the Jags nonetheless have a shot to win the craptastic AFC South. And they must! The Jags are the most productive workforce within the department, data be damned.
They’re younger, explosive, and maddeningly inconsistent. Close your eyes and you’ll image it now: The Jaguars sneak into the playoffs at the energy of Trevor Lawrence’s arm and the workforce’s frenzied protection and lose within the wild-card spherical by way of 40. There’s additionally a global through which the protection coalesces, Lawrence continues his ascension towards superstardom, and Jacksonville is going on a Cincy-inspired run all of the solution to the AFC identify recreation. No different workforce has the sort of various level of effects.
This is what formative years groups are meant to do. They lose large. They lose shut. They win shut. They win large. The Jaguars have shifted to that 0.33 level alongside the timeline. It would not be a stunner to look them hit the fourth landmark earlier than the season’s finish. They shut with video games on the Jets, on the Texans and residential to the Titans, in what generally is a winner-takes-all matchup.
We know this evidently: No playoff workforce needs to look Lawrence and the Jags’ uber-athletic protection operating onto the sphere in January.
Chances: Not nice, however might be worse
Las Vegas Raiders (6-8)
The Raiders have discovered their footing during the last month. Some of the ghastly offensive execution has vanished. The one-score recreation success has swung of their desire after some brutal bounces of the ball, ropey training selections and officiating miscues value them previous within the yr. Over the previous 5 video games, they averaged 27 issues, going 4-1, with the lone loss coming within the what-were-they-thinking Thursday nighter towards Baker Mayfield and the Rams.
Something has clicked. The offense has extra glide. They’re hammering other people with the run. The protection, outdoor of Maxx Crosby, has proven a pulse. They’re no longer an entire workforce just right workforce – however they’ve sufficient difference-makers on all sides of the ball to overcome somebody.
Their time table the remainder of the best way is quite mild. First up is a beatable Steelers aspect. Then they host the Brock Purdy-led Niners, a hard however no longer completely daunting process. Then it is an end-of-season matchup with the Chiefs, who might already be locked right into a playoff aspect and due to this fact resting their starters.
Chances: Creeping regularly upwards
NFC
1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-1); 2. Minnesota Vikings (11-3); 3. San Francisco 49ers (10-4); 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8); 5. Dallas Cowboys (10-4); 6. New York Giants (8-5-1); 7. Washington Commanders (7-6-1)
Detroit Lions (7-7)
Only one time in league historical past has a workforce made the playoffs after beginning 1-6, however Detroit is on its solution to becoming a member of that membership.
The Lions are the most up to date workforce within the league. Everything they contact on offense ends up in yards and touchdowns. They’re hitting extra explosive cross performs in the course of the air than any offense within the NFL rather than the Dolphins. With the sport at the line, they are throwing passes on third-and-7 to their All-Pro-caliber. left tackle, Ben Johnson, the workforce’s OC, has risen to the highest of the league’s head-coach-in-waiting scores because the training carousel begins to roll round. Johnson has tapped into the strengths of Jared Goff, with the quarterback taking part in his preferrred soccer since he piloted the Rams to the Super Bowl.
There had been indicators of lifestyles on protection, too. As Dan Campbell predicted again in August, it was once going to take Detroit till Week 8 to learn how to take on. And since Week 8 … the Lions lead the NFL within the fewest selection of neglected tackles and explosive runs conceded. That, plus a newfound tenacity within the secondary, has observed the Lions’ protection vault up essentially the most crucial of metrics: potency (18th) and turnover margin (6th).
It’s been a laugh staring at the Lions paintings in the course of the early-season malaise. They’re no longer essentially the most gifted workforce. But in an iffy NFC, they’ve sufficient items to sneak into the playoffs and to win a postseason recreation at the street.
Chances: Just shy of fifty/50
Seattle Seahawks (7-7)
The playoffs necessarily get started this week for Seattle. The Seahawks head to Kansas City to take at the Chiefs earlier than they go back house to play the Jets in week 17. They will wish to win a kind of video games – one a possible shootout; one towards the league’s maximum cussed protection – to have any shot at taking part in in January.
One factor they’ve going for them: They can rating with somebody. No one has extra deep passing yards or rankings this season than the combo of Geno Smith, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett – and this in a league with the Miami trio of Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Seattle is certainly one of most effective 8 groups to have scored greater than 350 general issues all season – a gaggle that places them a few of the elite of the elite (the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Eagles and Cowboys).
Yet of that team, the Seahawks are the one workforce to move that 350-point threshold to have a net-zero level differential. And whilst the Lions’ protection has been on the upward thrust, Seattle’s has begun to say no. It’s a high-variance team reliant on turnovers to conquer skill disparities.
Chances: Must win in Arrowhead (oof!)
Green Bay Packers (6-8)
Any shot the Packers have at rescuing one thing from this shipwreck of a season will come down as to whether or no longer they may be able to beat the Dolphins on Christmas Day. Miami has misplaced 3 in a row, albeit towards 3 playoff aspects – and two of the 4 preferrred groups within the NFL. The Packers are on a two-game profitable streak, albeit towards two aspects already extra eager about subsequent season.
Green Bay’s offense has discovered a brand new equipment for the reason that horror display in Detroit nearly two months in the past. That matchup represented the nadir of the Aaron Rodgers And His Rookie Wide Receivers Experience. Since then, the Pack have averaged 26 issues a recreation, a high-water mark from any five-game stretch this yr.
More troubling than the once-sputtering offense is the protection. Banged-up, overly passive and regularly devoid of clean concepts, the Packers’ protection has cratered. It opened the yr nineteenth in EPA in keeping with play, protecting video games tight as Rodgers and the offense labored via their identification disaster. But since Week 6, the gang has collapsed. They’re now twenty eighth in EPA in keeping with play with an allergic reaction to third-down stops.
Chances: Need a Christmas miracle
The NFC South trio: Carolina Panthers (5-9); New Orleans Saints (5–9); Atlanta Falcons (5-9)
In this silly, polarized local weather of haters and doubtful “well, actually” takes, there’s something we will all agree on: The NFC South must be booted into the sea. One of those groups goes to make the postseason, which is the type of crime towards soccer that may certainly result in a prosecution in The Hague.
The winner of this department will host To set up playoff recreation. The Bucs recently lead the pack with six – rely them: six! wins. But one recreation again within the loss column, there’s nonetheless a trail for any of Carolina, New Orleans or Atlanta to squeeze in in the event that they win two in their ultimate 3 video games.
Their schedules:
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Panthers – v Lions; at Bucs; Saints
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Saints – at Browns; at Eagles; Panthers
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Falcons – at Ravens; v Cardinals; vBucs
The preferrred wager is that the Bucs will dangle serve. But if no longer, the Panthers are the possibly to be ready. They’ve been a distinct aspect since Steve Wilks took over as intervening time trainer – even because the entrance place of business threw the roster to the Wolves. They are good, bodily and execute the little issues that result in wins. If they may be able to hold with the Lions this week, then they are going to have a shot to play spoiler in Tampa Bay and to most likely slip into the playoffs with a dropping report.
Chances: So you might be announcing there is a probability?